DEMS PANIC - Massive Update as Voting Begins in California Governor Race
WASHINGTON, D.C. — The California Secretary of State’s office has released updated figures on early ballot returns for the June primary election, indicating a notable shift in turnout patterns compared to previous cycles. According to the data, the Republican share of early voters has increased significantly, running more than 9 percent above the party’s voter registration share. This represents an 8 percent rise from early voting patterns in the 2022 primary. In contrast, the Democratic share of early ballot returns has declined by 7 percent from 2022 levels, now standing at 41 percent. The independent share has risen by 2 percent to 25 percent.
Assemblymember Carl DeMaio (R-San Diego) described the trend as encouraging for conservatives, noting that Republicans are up while Democrats are down relative to both prior elections and registration numbers. He cautioned against over-interpreting the early data but suggested it could reflect delayed decision-making among some Democratic voters in the governor’s race. Paul Mitchell of Political Data Inc. emphasized that it remains early in the voting period and that data reporting from counties can vary in speed. He observed that older, conservative voters and landlords, who tend to vote Republican, are among the first to return ballots.
Breakdown by age shows that 4.3 percent of voters aged 65 and older have participated so far, compared to 2 percent for those aged 50 to 64, 1.1 percent for ages 35 to 49, and 0.7 percent for ages 18 to 34. By race, 2.6 percent of early voters are white, 2.3 percent Asian, 1.6 percent Black, and 1.2 percent Latino. Mitchell noted that these patterns are typical of low-turnout elections, with older voters often returning ballots early. He added that some groups, such as older Latinos, may prefer voting at polls closer to Election Day.
The primary features a competitive governor’s race under California’s “jungle” primary system, in which the top two vote-getters advance to the general election regardless of party. Leading Democratic candidates include former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, progressive billionaire Tom Steyer, and former Orange County congresswoman Katie Porter. On the Republican side, former Fox News host Steve Hilton appears to hold a lead over Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco. Most polls indicate Becerra and Hilton as the likely top two finishers advancing to November.
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The early voting data has drawn attention as both parties prepare for the 2026 midterm elections. California remains a heavily Democratic state, but turnout patterns and the jungle primary system can influence outcomes in competitive races. Analysts note that early voting trends do not always predict final results, particularly in a state where many voters return ballots closer to the deadline. The Secretary of State’s office continues to update figures as more ballots are processed.
The developments occur against a backdrop of national redistricting battles and broader discussions about voter participation. Both parties are monitoring turnout closely as they finalize candidate slates and campaign strategies. The June primary will determine which candidates advance in key races, including the open governor’s seat and various congressional and local contests. Officials have encouraged all eligible voters to participate, noting that the final outcome will depend on total participation through Election Day.
